WTC Final 2025: India almost through, Check qualification scenarios for all teams
The scenario has changed for the World Test Championship (WTC) after Sri Lanka’s Test win over England and Bangladesh’s series win over Pakistan. England and Pakistan are almost out of the race to reach the WTC Final 2025. While it seems easier for India to reach the finals. Check here who will be the probable finalist and how other teams can qualify for the WTC 2025 Final.
India will now have to win at least 5 of the remaining 10 Tests to reach the WTC Final 2025 without any hurdle. The team will play 5 Tests at home and 5 in Australia. If Men in Blue makes it to the final of WTC, then the most probable other finalists will be Australia or New Zealand. Both the Kangaroo and the Kiwis had previously defeated India in the final of the last two editions of the WTC.
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Current WTC Final 2025 Standings –
| Teams | Matches | Win | Loss | Tie | Draw | N/R | PT | PCT | |||||||||||
| 1. INDIA | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 74 | 68.52 | |||||||||||
| 2. AUSTRALIA | 12 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 62.50 | |||||||||||
| 3. NEW ZEALAND | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 50.00 | |||||||||||
| 4. BANGLADESH | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 45.83 | |||||||||||
| 5. SRI LANKA | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 42.86 | |||||||||||
| 6. ENGLAND | 16 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 81 | 42.19 | |||||||||||
| 7. SOUTH AFRICA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 38.89 | |||||||||||
| 8. PAKISTAN | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 19.05 | |||||||||||
| 9. WEST INDIES | 9 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 18.52 | |||||||||||
WTC Final 2025 Scenario
1. India needs 5 wins
India won 6 matches in 9 Tests of 3 Series, played one draw, and lost 2. The team tops with 68.51% points. India still has 10 Tests left in 3 series, 5 of which will be in their home and 5 in Australia. The team at home will take on Bangladesh and New Zealand.
India needs 63 points more to keep more than 60% points. Which team can achieve with only 5 wins and 1 draw. The team will reach 64.03% points with 6 wins. At the same time, after 7 wins, the team can also achieve 69.3% points.
2. Australia must win 4 out of 7 matches
Australia won 8 games in 12 matches of 4 series, lost 3 and played a draw. This puts the team at number two with 62.50% points. They have 7 matches left, 5 matches at home against India and 2 matches against the island nation, Sri Lanka.
To have more than 60% points, the team will have to win at least 4 matches. The team can also earn as many points from 3 wins and 3 draws. Australia’s final position will be almost decided by the year-end Test series against India.
3. New Zealand should win 6 out of 8
New Zealand won 3 games in 6 matches of 3 series and lost 3. The team is currently at number three with 50% points. Their remaining 3 series are with India, Sri Lanka and England.
New Zealand needs to win 6 out of 8 Tests to hold more than 60% points. The team can also maintain their race for the qualification with 5 wins and 2 draws. But they will have the greatest difficulty in winning or drawing 3 Tests in India because the team has not won any Test in India in the last 36 years.
4. England depends on other teams
England’s hopes have been jolted after losing the Test to Sri Lanka in London. The team reached number six with 42.19% points. They have won 8 of the 16 matches of the 4 Series, lost 7 and drew one. The team will now have 2 series abroad against Pakistan and New Zealand.
Even after winning all the matches, England will reach a maximum of 57.95% points. Which almost kicks them out of the race. However, if Australia and India lose more than 5-5 Tests, then England will have some chances. At the same time, if England lost one of 6 Tests, the team would not be able to qualify even if India and Australia lost more.
5. How did Pakistan got out?
Pakistan are on the backfoot, losing 5 Tests in the last 2 Series against Australia and Bangladesh. They have only beaten Sri Lanka in 2 Tests so far and have only 19.05% points. Which is why the team is at number 8. Their remaining 3 series are with England, South Africa and the West Indies. The series with the Proteas will be played in South Africa.
If Pakistan wins all 7 Tests, they will have a maximum of 59.52% points. For the qualification, they have to wait for India and Australia to lose 5-5 Tests. But even more difficult for Pakistan is to beat England and South Africa. Men in Green lost the series 3–0 against England in their own home last time and has not won any Test in South Africa in the last 17 years.
England will host the 2025 & 2027 WTC final. [Gourav Gupta from TOI] pic.twitter.com/UiLfIXtAQL
— Johns. (@CricCrazyJohns) January 26, 2024
What is the status of the remaining 4 teams?
- Bangladesh: The team is at number four with 45.83% points. Their 6 matches are with India, West Indies and South Africa. The team can achieve 72.92% by winning all matches. While winning 4 matches, the team will reach 56.25% points. They have never won a Test against India, but after defeating Pakistan at their home, expectations are high.
- Sri Lanka: Is at number five with 42.86% points. The team will reach 69.23% points by winning their remaining 6 matches. Their remaining 4 Tests are against New Zealand and Australia. While 2 Tests are in South Africa, 2 Tests against Australia will be played at their home.
- South Africa: The team is at number seven with 38.89% points. Their remaining matches are against Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. They can reach 69.44% points by winning all matches.
- West Indies: The team is at number 9 with 18.52% points. Their remaining 4 Tests are with Bangladesh and Pakistan. Even by winning all matches, they will be able to reach 43.59% points, which is not enough to qualify in any condition.
Why does the World Test Championship (WTC) have a percentile points system?
When the first cycle of the Test Championship began in 2019, the ICC stated that there would be 120 points for a series of two or more matches. 60 points to win every match in a series of two Tests. 40 points for every match in a three-match series. Similarly, in the 4 Test matches series, there were 30 for every match and 24 points for every Test for the 5-match Test series.
The ICC changed the point system in November 2020 due to the Corona epidemic. Some teams were not completing the required 6 series due to the cancellation of several series. For this reason, the ICC applied the rule of percentage point system instead of directly calculating the point.
How are percentage points calculated For WTC?
Percentage points of a team in the WTC mean that that team achieved as many percent of the maximum points possible for themselves. Like we sit in an exam and assume that the total marks of the exam are 500. We only get 400 points out of 500, so we say that I get 80% points.
For example, India currently has 74 points in 9 matches of 3 Series. The team could have achieved a maximum of 108 points from 9 matches, but they have 74 points. If you calculate it in percentage, India will have 68.51% points. Its simple formula is, [(achieved points * 100) / total possible points]. This will be [(74*100)/108] in the condition of India. Similarly, the percentage points of the rest of the teams can also be removed.
